Daily Notes
Each business evening's estimate for next month's G Fund rate, newest first.
Friday: November firmer at 5.125% — proxy 5.154%, now 0.033 under the 5.1875 boundary, drifting lower.
Thursday: November drops to 5.125%. Yields slid, proxy 5.168% — now 0.019 under the 5.1875 boundary. That's down from October's published 5.375%.
Wednesday: November firmer at 5.25% — proxy 5.257%, now 0.055 under the 5.3125 boundary, drifting lower.
Tuesday: November firmer at 5.25% — proxy 5.276%, now 0.036 under the 5.3125 boundary, drifting lower.
Friday: November still reads 5.25%, proxy 5.307% — but it's only 0.5 bp under the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 5.375%.
Thursday: November drops to 5.25%. Yields slid, proxy 5.289% — now 0.023 under the 5.3125 boundary. That's down from October's published 5.375%.
Wednesday: November firmer at 5.375% — proxy 5.343%, now 0.031 above the 5.3125 boundary, drifting higher.
Tuesday: November still 5.375%, proxy 5.330% — margin narrowed (0.018 above the 5.3125 boundary). We're on September's weighting data now.
Monday: November firmer at 5.375% — proxy 5.365%, now 0.053 above the 5.3125 boundary, drifting higher.
Friday: November rises to 5.375%. Yields rose, proxy 5.345% — now 0.032 above the 5.3125 boundary.
First estimate: November's rate tracks at 5.25% (proxy 5.306%, 0.007 under the 5.3125 boundary). That's down from October's published 5.375%.
Month-end G Fund estimate: proxy 5.363%, 0.050 above the 5.3125 boundary — October's rate should print at 5.375%. That's up 4 eighths from September's 4.875%. The official rate is usually published within a day or two.
Tuesday: October rises to 5.375%. Yields rose, proxy 5.325% — now 0.012 above the 5.3125 boundary. That's up from September's published 4.875%.
Monday: October still reads 5.25%, proxy 5.307% — but it's only 0.5 bp under the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 5.375%.
Friday: October still 5.25%, proxy 5.234% — margin narrowed (0.047 above the 5.1875 boundary).
Thursday: October firmer at 5.25% — proxy 5.251%, now 0.061 under the 5.3125 boundary, drifting higher.
Wednesday: October rises to 5.25%. Yields rose, proxy 5.191% — now 0.004 above the 5.1875 boundary. That's up from September's published 4.875%.
Tuesday: October holding at 5.00%, proxy 5.050% (0.013 under the 5.0625 boundary).
Monday: October drops to 5.00%. Yields slid, proxy 5.051% — now 0.012 under the 5.0625 boundary. That's up from September's published 4.875%.
Friday: October rises to 5.125%. Yields rose, proxy 5.093% — now 0.030 above the 5.0625 boundary. That's up from September's published 4.875%.
Thursday: October drops to 5.00%. Yields slid, proxy 5.025% — now 0.037 under the 5.0625 boundary. That's up from September's published 4.875%.
Wednesday: October firmer at 5.125% — proxy 5.098%, now 0.035 above the 5.0625 boundary, drifting higher.
Tuesday: October rises to 5.125%. Yields rose, proxy 5.085% — now 0.023 above the 5.0625 boundary. That's up from September's published 4.875%.
Monday: October still reads 5.00%, proxy 5.057% — but it's only 0.6 bp under the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 5.125%.
Friday: October still 5.00%, proxy 5.051% — margin narrowed (0.011 under the 5.0625 boundary).
Thursday: October rises to 5.00%. Yields rose, proxy 5.040% — now 0.022 under the 5.0625 boundary. That's up from September's published 4.875%.
Wednesday: October still 4.875%, proxy 4.920% — margin narrowed (0.018 under the 4.9375 boundary).
Tuesday: October still 4.875%, proxy 4.889% — margin narrowed (0.048 under the 4.9375 boundary).
Friday: October firmer at 4.875% — proxy 4.871%, now 0.058 above the 4.8125 boundary, drifting higher. We're on August's weighting data now.
Thursday: October holding at 4.875%, proxy 4.863% (0.051 above the 4.8125 boundary).
Wednesday: October holding at 4.875%, proxy 4.886% (0.052 under the 4.9375 boundary).
First estimate: October's rate tracks at 4.875% (proxy 4.889%, 0.049 under the 4.9375 boundary).
Month-end G Fund estimate: proxy 4.848%, 0.036 above the 4.8125 boundary — September's rate should print at 4.875%. That's unchanged from August. The official rate is usually published within a day or two.
Friday: September rises to 4.875%. Yields rose, proxy 4.823% — now 0.010 above the 4.8125 boundary.
Thursday: September still 4.75%, proxy 4.761% — margin narrowed (0.051 under the 4.8125 boundary).
Wednesday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.751%, now 0.061 under the 4.8125 boundary, drifting higher.
Tuesday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.733%, now 0.045 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Monday: September drops to 4.75%. Yields slid, proxy 4.792% — now 0.021 under the 4.8125 boundary. That's down from August's published 4.875%.
Friday: September rises to 4.875%. Yields rose, proxy 4.822% — now 0.010 above the 4.8125 boundary.
Thursday: September still 4.75%, proxy 4.778% — margin narrowed (0.035 under the 4.8125 boundary).
Wednesday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.740%, now 0.053 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Tuesday: September drops to 4.75%. Yields slid, proxy 4.804% — now 0.008 under the 4.8125 boundary. That's down from August's published 4.875%.
Monday: September rises to 4.875%. Yields rose, proxy 4.819% — now 0.006 above the 4.8125 boundary.
Friday: September still 4.75%, proxy 4.776% — margin narrowed (0.037 under the 4.8125 boundary).
Thursday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.732%, now 0.044 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Wednesday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.779%, now 0.034 under the 4.8125 boundary, drifting lower.
Tuesday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.792%, now 0.021 under the 4.8125 boundary, drifting lower.
Monday: September still reads 4.75%, proxy 4.806% — but it's only 0.6 bp under the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 4.875%.
Friday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.746%, now 0.058 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Thursday: September still 4.75%, proxy 4.783% — margin narrowed (0.030 under the 4.8125 boundary). We're on July's weighting data now.
Wednesday: September holding at 4.75%, proxy 4.730% (0.042 above the 4.6875 boundary).
Tuesday: September firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.731%, now 0.044 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
First estimate: September's rate tracks at 4.75% (proxy 4.794%, 0.019 under the 4.8125 boundary). That's down from August's published 4.875%.
Month-end G Fund estimate: proxy 4.841%, 0.029 above the 4.8125 boundary — August's rate should print at 4.875%. That's up 3 eighths from July's 4.50%. The official rate is usually published within a day or two.
Thursday: August still 4.75%, proxy 4.772% — margin narrowed (0.040 under the 4.8125 boundary).
Wednesday: August firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.763%, now 0.050 under the 4.8125 boundary, drifting higher.
Tuesday: August still 4.75%, proxy 4.702% — margin narrowed (0.015 above the 4.6875 boundary).
Monday: August firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.745%, now 0.058 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Friday: August firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.778%, now 0.035 under the 4.8125 boundary, drifting lower.
Thursday: August still 4.75%, proxy 4.801% — margin narrowed (0.011 under the 4.8125 boundary).
Wednesday: August firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.762%, now 0.051 under the 4.8125 boundary, drifting higher.
Tuesday: August firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.729%, now 0.042 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting higher.
Monday: August rises to 4.75%. Yields rose, proxy 4.696% — now 0.009 above the 4.6875 boundary. That's up from July's published 4.50%.
Friday: August firmer at 4.625% — proxy 4.647%, now 0.041 under the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Thursday: August still 4.625%, proxy 4.660% — margin narrowed (0.027 under the 4.6875 boundary).
Wednesday: August firmer at 4.625% — proxy 4.642%, now 0.046 under the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Tuesday: August drops to 4.625%. Yields slid, proxy 4.674% — now 0.013 under the 4.6875 boundary. That's up from July's published 4.50%.
Monday: August rises to 4.75%. Yields rose, proxy 4.713% — now 0.025 above the 4.6875 boundary. That's up from July's published 4.50%.
Friday: August still 4.625%, proxy 4.660% — margin narrowed (0.027 under the 4.6875 boundary).
Thursday: August firmer at 4.625% — proxy 4.638%, now 0.049 under the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Wednesday: August still 4.625%, proxy 4.662% — margin narrowed (0.026 under the 4.6875 boundary).
Tuesday: August firmer at 4.625% — proxy 4.638%, now 0.050 under the 4.6875 boundary, drifting higher. We're on June's weighting data now.
Monday: August still 4.625%, proxy 4.582% — margin narrowed (0.019 above the 4.5625 boundary).
Thursday: August holding at 4.625%, proxy 4.591% (0.029 above the 4.5625 boundary).
First estimate: August's rate tracks at 4.625% (proxy 4.587%, 0.024 above the 4.5625 boundary). That's up from July's published 4.50%.
Month-end G Fund estimate: proxy 4.540%, 0.022 under the 4.5625 boundary — July's rate should print at 4.50%. That's unchanged from June. The official rate is usually published within a day or two.
Monday: July holding at 4.50%, proxy 4.478% (0.040 above the 4.4375 boundary).
Friday: July still 4.50%, proxy 4.475% — margin narrowed (0.038 above the 4.4375 boundary).
Thursday: July still 4.50%, proxy 4.491% — margin narrowed (0.053 above the 4.4375 boundary).
Wednesday: July drops to 4.50%. Yields slid, proxy 4.502% — now 0.061 under the 4.5625 boundary.
Tuesday: July still 4.625%, proxy 4.593% — margin narrowed (0.031 above the 4.5625 boundary).
Monday: July rises to 4.625%. Yields rose, proxy 4.607% — now 0.044 above the 4.5625 boundary. That's up from June's published 4.50%.
Thursday: July drops to 4.50%. Yields slid, proxy 4.552% — now 0.011 under the 4.5625 boundary.
Wednesday: July rises to 4.625%. Yields rose, proxy 4.587% — now 0.025 above the 4.5625 boundary. That's up from June's published 4.50%.
Tuesday: July firmer at 4.50% — proxy 4.523%, now 0.040 under the 4.5625 boundary, drifting lower.
Monday: July drops to 4.50%. Yields slid, proxy 4.560% — now 0.003 under the 4.5625 boundary.
Friday: July rises to 4.625%. Yields rose, proxy 4.575% — now 0.013 above the 4.5625 boundary. That's up from June's published 4.50%.
Thursday: July drops to 4.50%. Yields slid, proxy 4.550% — now 0.013 under the 4.5625 boundary.
Wednesday: July still 4.625%, proxy 4.637% — margin narrowed (0.051 under the 4.6875 boundary).
Tuesday: July firmer at 4.625% — proxy 4.622%, now 0.059 above the 4.5625 boundary, drifting lower.
Monday: July still 4.625%, proxy 4.651% — margin narrowed (0.036 under the 4.6875 boundary).
Friday: July firmer at 4.625% — proxy 4.641%, now 0.047 under the 4.6875 boundary, drifting higher.
Thursday: July still reads 4.625%, proxy 4.564% — but it's only 0.1 bp above the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 4.50%. We're on May's weighting data now.
Wednesday: July rises to 4.625%. Yields rose, proxy 4.586% — now 0.024 above the 4.5625 boundary. That's up from June's published 4.50%.
Tuesday: July drops to 4.50%. Yields slid, proxy 4.554% — now 0.008 under the 4.5625 boundary.
First estimate: July's rate tracks at 4.625% (proxy 4.568%, 0.006 above the 4.5625 boundary). That's up from June's published 4.50%.
Month-end G Fund estimate: proxy 4.536%, 0.026 under the 4.5625 boundary — June's rate should print at 4.50%. That's unchanged from May. The official rate is usually published within a day or two.
Thursday: June drops to 4.50%. Yields slid, proxy 4.544% — now 0.019 under the 4.5625 boundary.
Wednesday: June still reads 4.625%, proxy 4.571% — but it's only 0.9 bp above the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 4.50%.
Tuesday: June still 4.625%, proxy 4.589% — margin narrowed (0.026 above the 4.5625 boundary).
Friday: June firmer at 4.625% — proxy 4.648%, now 0.040 under the 4.6875 boundary, drifting lower.
Thursday: June still 4.625%, proxy 4.655% — margin narrowed (0.033 under the 4.6875 boundary).
Wednesday: June drops to 4.625%. Yields slid, proxy 4.647% — now 0.040 under the 4.6875 boundary. That's up from May's published 4.50%.
Tuesday: June firmer at 4.75% — proxy 4.742%, now 0.055 above the 4.6875 boundary, drifting higher.
Monday: June rises to 4.75%. Yields rose, proxy 4.688% — now 0.001 above the 4.6875 boundary. That's up from May's published 4.50%.
Friday: June rises to 4.625%. Yields rose, proxy 4.680% — now 0.007 under the 4.6875 boundary. That's up from May's published 4.50%.
Thursday: June holding at 4.50%, proxy 4.550% (0.012 under the 4.5625 boundary).
Wednesday: June holding at 4.50%, proxy 4.549% (0.013 under the 4.5625 boundary).
Tuesday: June still 4.50%, proxy 4.549% — margin narrowed (0.013 under the 4.5625 boundary).
Monday: June firmer at 4.50% — proxy 4.501%, now 0.062 under the 4.5625 boundary, drifting higher.
Friday: June still 4.50%, proxy 4.458% — margin narrowed (0.021 above the 4.4375 boundary).
Thursday: June firmer at 4.50% — proxy 4.484%, now 0.047 above the 4.4375 boundary, drifting higher.
Wednesday: June still reads 4.50%, proxy 4.440% — but it's only 0.2 bp above the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 4.375%. We're on April's weighting data now.
Tuesday: June firmer at 4.50% — proxy 4.513%, now 0.049 under the 4.5625 boundary, drifting lower.
Monday: June still 4.50%, proxy 4.532% — margin narrowed (0.030 under the 4.5625 boundary).
First estimate: June's rate tracks at 4.50% (proxy 4.476%, 0.038 above the 4.4375 boundary).
Month-end G Fund estimate: proxy 4.482%, 0.044 above the 4.4375 boundary — May's rate should print at 4.50%. That's up an eighth from April's 4.375%. The official rate is usually published within a day or two.
Wednesday: May rises to 4.50%. Yields rose, proxy 4.493% — now 0.056 above the 4.4375 boundary. That's up from April's published 4.375%.
Tuesday: May still reads 4.375%, proxy 4.431% — but it's only 0.6 bp under the boundary, so call it a coin flip with 4.50%.
Monday: May still 4.375%, proxy 4.418% — margin narrowed (0.020 under the 4.4375 boundary).
Friday: May firmer at 4.375% — proxy 4.385%, now 0.053 under the 4.4375 boundary, drifting lower.
Thursday: May still 4.375%, proxy 4.412% — margin narrowed (0.025 under the 4.4375 boundary).
Wednesday: May holding at 4.375%, proxy 4.378% (0.060 under the 4.4375 boundary).
Tuesday: May firmer at 4.375% — proxy 4.374%, now 0.062 above the 4.3125 boundary, drifting higher.
Monday: May holding at 4.375%, proxy 4.338% (0.026 above the 4.3125 boundary).
Friday: May still 4.375%, proxy 4.333% — margin narrowed (0.021 above the 4.3125 boundary).
Thursday: May still 4.375%, proxy 4.393% — margin narrowed (0.045 under the 4.4375 boundary).
Wednesday: May firmer at 4.375% — proxy 4.369%, now 0.057 above the 4.3125 boundary, drifting higher.
Tuesday: May still 4.375%, proxy 4.342% — margin narrowed (0.030 above the 4.3125 boundary).
Monday: May firmer at 4.375% — proxy 4.383%, now 0.055 under the 4.4375 boundary, drifting lower.